Professional Betting Strategies

Example: If my $1OK starting bank has gone down to $8K due to negative flux, and my true edge tells me that I have a 2 1/2% advantage after deducting the house edge off the top, then according to the chart I would ideally place one hand of $80, two $60 hands, or three $40 hands. If you can spot these entries in the chart, then that's all there is to it. You may find that in some instances the "ideal" bets for two or three hands are the same, which is a result of rounding to the nearest $10. In fact, the ideal two- hand bet will be somewhat greater than the three- hand bet. But don't worry about over- betting- because we are betting only at the half-Kelly level, betting slightly more than the ideal amount isn't at all significant. We have already largely decreased our flux by not betting anywhere near full-Kelly.

The second chart shows how your bets increase when your $l0 K starting bank is on the upswing. If you cut all chart entries in half, note also how impractical it is for a player on a $l0 K bank to minimize his risk by betting at the quarter-Kelly level, especially if his starting bank goes into a downswing. The bet sizes are so small that it is difficult to get a substantial enough win rate per hour to make youre playing worth the effort.

At half-Kelly with this $l0 K bankroll, the player will assume more risk, and greater fluctuations, but his hourly rate may be high enough to justify his time and effort at the tables.

I'm sure a nutritionist would scratch her head over this chart, but it provides me with the data I need at a glance. If my bank goes up to $l1K, and I have a 3% advantage, I can bet $90 on two hands, or $70 on three. I advise players who want to travel with any type of charts, such as playing strategy index numbers, to create decoy charts with silly headings: That way you can pull your charts out in the
blackjack casino coffee shop for review without fear of surveillance cameras looking over your shoulder. Pick any esoteric topic-hedge fund profit ratios, auto part wholesale discounts, whatever-and you can carry pages and pages of sensitive material without worrying about the wrong eyes seeing it. Likewise, if you travel with a laptop or a palm pilot, and you keep this type of information on your computer, do likewise. Put all charts, indices, play results, team cash transfers, etc., into innocent-looking tables with headings and references that appear to have nothing whatsoever to do with blackjack or gambling.

If you are a casual player, this degree of paranoia is probably not necessary. But if you are playing at high stakes, you can't be too careful. I know many players whose rooms were searched (illegally) by
casino security. I've also heard of players who accidentally left luggage, or a briefcase, in the coffee shop, and then had to identify their property later by descnbing the contents to casino security personnel in order to retrieve it. Just don't take chances. Shit happens.